Here are my wild guesses this 4th of July which could change in a second with some incident or new information. But, in the meantime, it is fun playing the political board game of guessing:
1/ if the economy takes off, President Obama will be re-elected (absent some really horrible national security issue if handled horribly.)
2/ if the economy continues to tank, President Obama is out - which means one of two things: a Republican is in or he gets successfully challenged from within his party (very rare...1980 was an unsuccessful bid by Senator Kennedy to unseat President Carter. At that time, 1980, the economy was also terrible - double digit inflation and double digit interest rates at the same time)
3/ the leading Republican is _______ (you fill in the blank but my current guess is that Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is the front runner over the other known Republicans...watch him: he has been running around the USA giving speeches about solutions....and if the economy is bad the American people will not turn to a new Republican out of fear of the unknown. Solutions is a very powerful message and Speaker Gingrich owns it right now.)
4/ would President Obama get challenge from within his own party? That would be very, very, very unusual but watch Secretary of State Clinton...if you notice, it seems like President Obama is stripping her of power. He has created all these envoys for regions of the world that were typically left to the Secretary of State and even moved Dennis Ross over to the White House from the State Department where he answered to her. I don't know about Secretary Clinton, but I would not like what is going on. It appears she is getting marginalized. I also don't know about you, but I think it odd that she cancelled her trip to Russia with the President because of her elbow. Yes, she really whacked her elbow and got a painful injury (and surgery) but that woman is tough ....I really don't think an elbow would stop her. I am suspicious (note: I HAVE NO EVIDENCE ...just suspicious from the outside) that she is not happy with the way she is being treated. It appears that the White House is trying to marginalize her...but let me emphasize: this is just my wild guess. Keep your eye on her husband, too -- if you see him in states like Pennsylvania, Florida campaigning for Dems, he might be cautiously lining up the chits for later. But, let me add - I have no idea and I am just guessing which is the fun of being a political watcher.
